Attendance drops

Temporary fluctuation in attendance can be normal over the life of a community. However, steady attrition over time is likely cause for concern. Decreases in attendance normally occur for one (or more) of three reasons.

• A new leader of the community arrives.
  With a change in leadership comes a time of change when members decide if their commitment to their community will continue with the new leader. While the hope is that a church community is committed to itself, it needs to be acknowledged that at times personality does influence growth and attrition patterns in churches. The arrival of a new leader can lead to a decrease in attendance, at least in the short term.
• Conflict in a congregation.
  Significant or unresolved conflicts over community direction, issues of worship or a myriad of other possible issues can cause division leading to congregants leaving for greener grass in other parishes.
• Community Erosion
  Slow and steady decrease in attendance is a subtle but critical warning sign of a troubled parish. Attrition occurs slowly as congregants move, die or leave due to lack of interest or general unfulfillment. This is further compounded by a lack of new growth through new membership or children entering the parish.

Of the three forms of attrition, the third is the most insidious as it is difficult to recognize and accept. Often problems in programming, community dynamics and leadership remain in place for years until the community reaches the tipping-point and enters into crisis mode. Parish leadership may blind themselves to the problems by refusing to accept responsibility or deflecting blame for the parish’s failures. This is a classic indicator of problems at the leadership level.

Operational fundraising

All fund raising is for the operational budget. The work of the parish has become the goal of keeping the doors open only, not doing the work of the gospel and the mission to which the baptized are called. When all fund raising is internal and the parish is focused on survival, the reason for being a Christian community is quickly lost.

Disappearing programs

Lack of interest or lack of volunteers, particularly for fundamental programs – such as Sunday school or fellowship time – indicates attrition and looming problems. Once programs cease, the community has admitted that they are in danger. This is a common early-warning sign that proactive leadership should be aware of when considering ending fundamental programming

Reduction in staff numbers or hours

When paid positions are eliminated or staff move from full time to ¾ time or ½ time to save money, this can be a sign the community is unable to meet its basic obligations. This warning sign is often seen together with operational fundraising as a last-ditch attempt to keep the doors open. While sometimes shrinking to grow can be a legitimate approach to a struggling parish, this is still a clear warning sign all is not well.

Rapid progression through programs

Communities that are in panic mode often fall into this pattern. They move quickly from one program to the next looking for a quick fix to their financial and attendance problems. The rapid introduction and progression through programs – often modeled after more successful churches or consultant advice – is often a sign of an impatient and desperate attempt to find a quick fix for the problems of the parish.

Few givers give a lot

The 80/20 rule applies in most circumstances in communities: 20% of the people do 80% of the work. However, a community dependent on only 20% of its givers is always in danger — even when it can make its budget. An 80/20 community is always one death away from financial crisis. Healthy communities divide the burden while struggling communities rely upon a few individuals. In some cases, this arrangement can lead to further problems as money and politics are closely related. A small concentration of either can spell danger.

Constant or frequent turnover of staff and volunteers

With constant turnover, effort is often duplicated and resources are wasted. Community identity is always in a state of flux. New directions and new visions are constantly implemented, upsetting the core of the community. Integrating new volunteers into the community is a sign of health, but regular turnover can be a sign of trouble in the parish, whether from politics, past conflicts, or leadership.

Merging or partnering for survival

Requiring partners to share resources, especially leadership, is an indication of a community that is suffering attrition and is in danger of closing. If a merger or partnership with another community is required to meet basic budget needs, then the community is in serious danger. This is often a Band-Aid solution to immediate problems.

With no long-term plan to address the circumstances that led to the need to merge or partner, the problems will likely resurface over time. If there is a poisonous element in the community, it must be eliminated before joining with another community or risk poisoning it as well.

Poor communication

Gossip, infighting, lack of transparency and closed-door leadership meetings, especially surrounding important decisions, are indications of unhealthy internal communication within the parish.

Poor external communication is also a sign that the parish is likely to struggle with growth and evangelism. Websites that carry outdated information, for example, are an obvious indication to the outside world that the parish is in crisis and unable to maintain the most basic communication requirements

Emptying endowments

When endowment capital is used for the operational budget with no repayment plan, it is often a Band-Aid solution to cover deeper problems. Using endowment funds for immediate problems with no long-term replacement plan is a sign that the parish has stopped considering its own future. If a parish stops funding its future, it may not have one.